Dự báo 90 bước · Simple moving average
Mô hình Simple moving average, khớp trên 750 quan sát tính đến 09/10/2026. Tạo lúc 16:59 10/10/26.
Cần lưu ý
Dự báo phẳng bằng trung bình k phiên gần nhất.
Giá hiện tại
68.353.000VNĐ/lượng
Ngày 09/10/2026
Dự báo sau 90 bước
67.600.286VNĐ/lượng-1,10%
Khoảng 95% cuối kỳ
59.063.774 – 76.136.797
Suy ra từ sai số out-of-sample, không phải phần dư in-sample
MASE
6,765
Từ 1 trở lên — không tốt hơn giả định giá đứng yên
Vùng tô là khoảng tin cậy. Nếu vùng này rộng hơn nhiều so với mức thay đổi dự báo, con số điểm không nên được đọc như một mức giá cụ thể.
Đánh giá rolling-origin trên 101 điểm gốc, tổng 9090 lần dự báo out-of-sample.
MASE chia sai số tuyệt đối trung bình cho sai số mà dự báo naive mắc phải trên cùng chuỗi. Dưới 1 nghĩa là mô hình mang thêm thông tin; từ 1 trở lên thì không, dù MAPE trông đẹp đến đâu.
Sai số nở ra theo khoảng cách dự báo — đây là lý do khoảng tin cậy ngày thứ 30 rộng hơn hẳn ngày mai.
| Bước | MAE | RMSE | MAPE | Mẫu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 648.730 | 834.235 | 1,00% | 101 |
| 2 | 731.052 | 982.454 | 1,13% | 101 |
| 3 | 872.870 | 1.141.320 | 1,36% | 101 |
| 4 | 949.236 | 1.193.080 | 1,47% | 101 |
| 5 | 1.008.992 | 1.250.190 | 1,57% | 101 |
| 6 | 1.074.147 | 1.325.706 | 1,66% | 101 |
| 7 | 1.128.018 | 1.384.377 | 1,75% | 101 |
| 8 | 1.161.816 | 1.460.737 | 1,80% | 101 |
| 9 | 1.254.635 | 1.600.345 | 1,95% | 101 |
| 10 | 1.276.760 | 1.602.293 | 1,98% | 101 |
| 11 | 1.346.728 | 1.659.200 | 2,09% | 101 |
| 12 | 1.363.195 | 1.716.386 | 2,11% | 101 |
| 13 | 1.374.238 | 1.782.984 | 2,12% | 101 |
| 14 | 1.384.431 | 1.812.920 | 2,14% | 101 |
| 15 | 1.486.154 | 1.924.216 | 2,30% | 101 |
| 16 | 1.462.385 | 1.901.265 | 2,26% | 101 |
| 17 | 1.530.470 | 1.945.858 | 2,37% | 101 |
| 18 | 1.563.238 | 2.007.103 | 2,42% | 101 |
| 19 | 1.576.876 | 2.053.707 | 2,44% | 101 |
| 20 | 1.587.700 | 2.021.091 | 2,45% | 101 |
| 21 | 1.713.149 | 2.128.825 | 2,64% | 101 |
| 22 | 1.723.826 | 2.129.194 | 2,66% | 101 |
| 23 | 1.773.550 | 2.144.079 | 2,74% | 101 |
| 24 | 1.804.238 | 2.206.046 | 2,79% | 101 |
| 25 | 1.827.385 | 2.274.219 | 2,82% | 101 |
| 26 | 1.830.375 | 2.262.891 | 2,82% | 101 |
| 27 | 1.870.636 | 2.331.651 | 2,88% | 101 |
| 28 | 1.904.068 | 2.365.042 | 2,93% | 101 |
| 29 | 1.959.758 | 2.378.406 | 3,02% | 101 |
| 30 | 2.003.997 | 2.444.588 | 3,09% | 101 |
| 31 | 2.068.785 | 2.518.891 | 3,19% | 101 |
| 32 | 2.007.474 | 2.509.515 | 3,08% | 101 |
| 33 | 2.023.107 | 2.538.291 | 3,11% | 101 |
| 34 | 2.018.160 | 2.578.017 | 3,10% | 101 |
| 35 | 2.064.325 | 2.587.611 | 3,17% | 101 |
| 36 | 2.133.079 | 2.657.685 | 3,28% | 101 |
| 37 | 2.156.174 | 2.727.431 | 3,31% | 101 |
| 38 | 2.117.925 | 2.723.148 | 3,24% | 101 |
| 39 | 2.124.581 | 2.752.356 | 3,25% | 101 |
| 40 | 2.139.393 | 2.783.445 | 3,28% | 101 |
| 41 | 2.204.946 | 2.810.918 | 3,38% | 101 |
| 42 | 2.296.246 | 2.888.287 | 3,52% | 101 |
| 43 | 2.287.887 | 2.928.996 | 3,50% | 101 |
| 44 | 2.292.564 | 2.940.626 | 3,50% | 101 |
| 45 | 2.342.477 | 2.992.761 | 3,58% | 101 |
| 46 | 2.369.501 | 3.013.562 | 3,63% | 101 |
| 47 | 2.406.986 | 3.047.024 | 3,68% | 101 |
| 48 | 2.495.893 | 3.108.092 | 3,82% | 101 |
| 49 | 2.539.167 | 3.131.210 | 3,88% | 101 |
| 50 | 2.556.130 | 3.162.375 | 3,90% | 101 |
| 51 | 2.618.628 | 3.211.262 | 4,00% | 101 |
| 52 | 2.651.854 | 3.249.158 | 4,05% | 101 |
| 53 | 2.698.973 | 3.288.146 | 4,12% | 101 |
| 54 | 2.772.195 | 3.346.956 | 4,23% | 101 |
| 55 | 2.795.956 | 3.355.885 | 4,27% | 101 |
| 56 | 2.792.212 | 3.381.662 | 4,25% | 101 |
| 57 | 2.859.393 | 3.425.181 | 4,36% | 101 |
| 58 | 2.877.764 | 3.451.779 | 4,39% | 101 |
| 59 | 2.914.300 | 3.472.383 | 4,44% | 101 |
| 60 | 2.964.662 | 3.543.841 | 4,52% | 101 |
| 61 | 2.985.426 | 3.541.942 | 4,55% | 101 |
| 62 | 2.957.011 | 3.544.461 | 4,50% | 101 |
| 63 | 2.987.192 | 3.559.865 | 4,55% | 101 |
| 64 | 3.032.885 | 3.596.486 | 4,62% | 101 |
| 65 | 3.051.209 | 3.611.394 | 4,65% | 101 |
| 66 | 3.084.175 | 3.681.160 | 4,69% | 101 |
| 67 | 3.113.530 | 3.678.878 | 4,74% | 101 |
| 68 | 3.089.499 | 3.692.580 | 4,70% | 101 |
| 69 | 3.092.690 | 3.700.374 | 4,70% | 101 |
| 70 | 3.187.758 | 3.767.184 | 4,85% | 101 |
| 71 | 3.206.262 | 3.787.430 | 4,88% | 101 |
| 72 | 3.257.250 | 3.873.468 | 4,95% | 101 |
| 73 | 3.248.509 | 3.852.502 | 4,94% | 101 |
| 74 | 3.232.716 | 3.875.951 | 4,91% | 101 |
| 75 | 3.234.393 | 3.892.117 | 4,91% | 101 |
| 76 | 3.317.984 | 3.959.234 | 5,04% | 101 |
| 77 | 3.312.532 | 3.979.155 | 5,03% | 101 |
| 78 | 3.369.207 | 4.080.793 | 5,12% | 101 |
| 79 | 3.378.533 | 4.078.080 | 5,13% | 101 |
| 80 | 3.389.383 | 4.110.416 | 5,14% | 101 |
| 81 | 3.377.861 | 4.108.236 | 5,13% | 101 |
| 82 | 3.464.248 | 4.149.515 | 5,26% | 101 |
| 83 | 3.496.320 | 4.168.321 | 5,31% | 101 |
| 84 | 3.552.873 | 4.239.840 | 5,39% | 101 |
| 85 | 3.549.795 | 4.229.438 | 5,38% | 101 |
| 86 | 3.545.467 | 4.247.888 | 5,37% | 101 |
| 87 | 3.558.150 | 4.248.310 | 5,39% | 101 |
| 88 | 3.627.290 | 4.273.529 | 5,50% | 101 |
| 89 | 3.683.207 | 4.293.270 | 5,59% | 101 |
| 90 | 3.740.987 | 4.355.443 | 5,67% | 101 |
| Ngày | Dự báo | So với hiện tại | Khoảng 80% | Khoảng 95% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 66.531.171 – 68.669.400 | 65.965.216 – 69.235.355 |
| 11/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 66.341.220 – 68.859.351 | 65.674.712 – 69.525.860 |
| 12/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 66.137.625 – 69.062.946 | 65.363.339 – 69.837.232 |
| 13/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 66.071.293 – 69.129.279 | 65.261.893 – 69.938.679 |
| 14/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.998.103 – 69.202.468 | 65.149.959 – 70.050.613 |
| 15/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.901.326 – 69.299.246 | 65.001.950 – 70.198.621 |
| 16/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.826.135 – 69.374.436 | 64.886.957 – 70.313.615 |
| 17/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.728.276 – 69.472.296 | 64.737.294 – 70.463.278 |
| 18/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.549.361 – 69.651.211 | 64.463.666 – 70.736.905 |
| 19/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.546.864 – 69.653.707 | 64.459.848 – 70.740.723 |
| 20/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.473.936 – 69.726.636 | 64.348.314 – 70.852.257 |
| 21/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.400.649 – 69.799.923 | 64.236.231 – 70.964.340 |
| 22/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.315.299 – 69.885.272 | 64.105.700 – 71.094.871 |
| 23/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.276.936 – 69.923.636 | 64.047.029 – 71.153.543 |
| 24/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.134.304 – 70.066.268 | 63.828.891 – 71.371.680 |
| 25/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.163.717 – 70.036.855 | 63.873.875 – 71.326.696 |
| 26/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.106.569 – 70.094.003 | 63.786.475 – 71.414.097 |
| 27/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.028.080 – 70.172.492 | 63.666.436 – 71.534.135 |
| 28/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.968.355 – 70.232.217 | 63.575.094 – 71.625.477 |
| 29/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 65.010.153 – 70.190.418 | 63.639.020 – 71.561.551 |
| 30/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.872.087 – 70.328.485 | 63.427.865 – 71.772.706 |
| 31/10/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.871.614 – 70.328.957 | 63.427.143 – 71.773.428 |
| 01/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.852.537 – 70.348.034 | 63.397.967 – 71.802.604 |
| 02/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.773.124 – 70.427.447 | 63.276.515 – 71.924.056 |
| 03/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.685.757 – 70.514.815 | 63.142.898 – 72.057.673 |
| 04/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.700.274 – 70.500.297 | 63.165.100 – 72.035.471 |
| 05/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.612.154 – 70.588.417 | 63.030.333 – 72.170.238 |
| 06/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.569.363 – 70.631.209 | 62.964.889 – 72.235.683 |
| 07/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.552.236 – 70.648.335 | 62.938.696 – 72.261.875 |
| 08/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.467.420 – 70.733.152 | 62.808.981 – 72.391.591 |
| 09/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.372.198 – 70.828.374 | 62.663.351 – 72.537.220 |
| 10/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.384.212 – 70.816.359 | 62.681.726 – 72.518.846 |
| 11/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.347.335 – 70.853.236 | 62.625.328 – 72.575.244 |
| 12/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.296.424 – 70.904.148 | 62.547.465 – 72.653.107 |
| 13/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.284.129 – 70.916.442 | 62.528.662 – 72.671.910 |
| 14/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.194.325 – 71.006.247 | 62.391.318 – 72.809.253 |
| 15/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.104.943 – 71.095.629 | 62.254.620 – 72.945.951 |
| 16/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.110.431 – 71.090.140 | 62.263.014 – 72.937.557 |
| 17/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.073.000 – 71.127.571 | 62.205.768 – 72.994.804 |
| 18/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 64.033.158 – 71.167.414 | 62.144.834 – 73.055.737 |
| 19/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.997.950 – 71.202.622 | 62.090.988 – 73.109.583 |
| 20/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.898.798 – 71.301.774 | 61.939.348 – 73.261.223 |
| 21/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.846.626 – 71.353.945 | 61.859.559 – 73.341.013 |
| 22/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.831.722 – 71.368.849 | 61.836.765 – 73.363.807 |
| 23/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.764.908 – 71.435.663 | 61.734.582 – 73.465.989 |
| 24/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.738.251 – 71.462.321 | 61.693.813 – 73.506.759 |
| 25/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.695.367 – 71.505.204 | 61.628.228 – 73.572.343 |
| 26/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.617.105 – 71.583.466 | 61.508.536 – 73.692.035 |
| 27/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.587.478 – 71.613.093 | 61.463.226 – 73.737.345 |
| 28/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.547.538 – 71.653.033 | 61.402.144 – 73.798.428 |
| 29/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.484.887 – 71.715.684 | 61.306.327 – 73.894.244 |
| 30/11/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.436.322 – 71.764.249 | 61.232.053 – 73.968.518 |
| 01/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.386.358 – 71.814.214 | 61.155.639 – 74.044.933 |
| 02/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.310.989 – 71.889.583 | 61.040.372 – 74.160.199 |
| 03/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.299.546 – 71.901.025 | 61.022.872 – 74.177.699 |
| 04/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.266.512 – 71.934.060 | 60.972.351 – 74.228.221 |
| 05/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.210.740 – 71.989.831 | 60.887.055 – 74.313.516 |
| 06/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.176.654 – 72.023.918 | 60.834.924 – 74.365.647 |
| 07/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.150.248 – 72.050.324 | 60.794.540 – 74.406.032 |
| 08/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.058.671 – 72.141.900 | 60.654.486 – 74.546.086 |
| 09/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.061.105 – 72.139.467 | 60.658.207 – 74.542.364 |
| 10/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.057.876 – 72.142.695 | 60.653.270 – 74.547.302 |
| 11/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 63.038.135 – 72.162.436 | 60.623.079 – 74.577.492 |
| 12/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.991.203 – 72.209.368 | 60.551.302 – 74.649.269 |
| 13/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.972.098 – 72.228.474 | 60.522.083 – 74.678.488 |
| 14/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.882.689 – 72.317.883 | 60.385.344 – 74.815.228 |
| 15/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.885.614 – 72.314.957 | 60.389.818 – 74.810.753 |
| 16/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.868.054 – 72.332.518 | 60.362.961 – 74.837.610 |
| 17/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.858.066 – 72.342.506 | 60.347.686 – 74.852.885 |
| 18/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.772.446 – 72.428.126 | 60.216.741 – 74.983.830 |
| 19/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.746.500 – 72.454.072 | 60.177.060 – 75.023.511 |
| 20/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.636.237 – 72.564.335 | 60.008.428 – 75.192.144 |
| 21/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.663.106 – 72.537.466 | 60.049.520 – 75.151.051 |
| 22/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.633.055 – 72.567.517 | 60.003.561 – 75.197.010 |
| 23/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.612.338 – 72.588.234 | 59.971.877 – 75.228.694 |
| 24/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.526.323 – 72.674.248 | 59.840.330 – 75.360.242 |
| 25/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.500.793 – 72.699.778 | 59.801.285 – 75.399.287 |
| 26/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.370.539 – 72.830.033 | 59.602.078 – 75.598.494 |
| 27/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.374.016 – 72.826.556 | 59.607.395 – 75.593.176 |
| 28/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.332.575 – 72.867.996 | 59.544.018 – 75.656.554 |
| 29/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.335.369 – 72.865.202 | 59.548.290 – 75.652.281 |
| 30/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.282.469 – 72.918.103 | 59.467.386 – 75.733.185 |
| 31/12/2026 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.258.367 – 72.942.204 | 59.430.526 – 75.770.045 |
| 01/01/2027 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.166.712 – 73.033.860 | 59.290.352 – 75.910.220 |
| 02/01/2027 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.180.043 – 73.020.529 | 59.310.739 – 75.889.832 |
| 03/01/2027 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.156.399 – 73.044.173 | 59.274.579 – 75.925.992 |
| 04/01/2027 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.155.858 – 73.044.714 | 59.273.752 – 75.926.820 |
| 05/01/2027 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.123.538 – 73.077.033 | 59.224.324 – 75.976.248 |
| 06/01/2027 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.098.239 – 73.102.333 | 59.185.631 – 76.014.941 |
| 07/01/2027 | 67.600.286 | -1,10% | 62.018.561 – 73.182.010 | 59.063.774 – 76.136.797 |
Công khai để kết quả có thể kiểm chứng lại, thay vì phải tin vào một hộp đen.