Dự báo 90 bước · Drift
Mô hình Drift, khớp trên 750 quan sát tính đến 09/10/2026. Tạo lúc 16:59 10/10/26.
Cần lưu ý
Ngoại suy theo mức thay đổi trung bình của toàn bộ chuỗi lịch sử.
Giá hiện tại
68.353.000VNĐ/lượng
Ngày 09/10/2026
Dự báo sau 90 bước
69.270.543VNĐ/lượng+1,34%
Khoảng 95% cuối kỳ
59.750.478 – 78.790.608
Suy ra từ sai số out-of-sample, không phải phần dư in-sample
MASE
6,856
Từ 1 trở lên — không tốt hơn giả định giá đứng yên
Vùng tô là khoảng tin cậy. Nếu vùng này rộng hơn nhiều so với mức thay đổi dự báo, con số điểm không nên được đọc như một mức giá cụ thể.
Đánh giá rolling-origin trên 101 điểm gốc, tổng 9090 lần dự báo out-of-sample.
MASE chia sai số tuyệt đối trung bình cho sai số mà dự báo naive mắc phải trên cùng chuỗi. Dưới 1 nghĩa là mô hình mang thêm thông tin; từ 1 trở lên thì không, dù MAPE trông đẹp đến đâu.
Sai số nở ra theo khoảng cách dự báo — đây là lý do khoảng tin cậy ngày thứ 30 rộng hơn hẳn ngày mai.
| Bước | MAE | RMSE | MAPE | Mẫu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 357.108 | 477.689 | 0,55% | 101 |
| 2 | 519.580 | 694.281 | 0,80% | 101 |
| 3 | 629.518 | 826.904 | 0,98% | 101 |
| 4 | 761.647 | 980.038 | 1,18% | 101 |
| 5 | 807.474 | 1.041.989 | 1,25% | 101 |
| 6 | 896.376 | 1.143.435 | 1,39% | 101 |
| 7 | 975.014 | 1.239.689 | 1,51% | 101 |
| 8 | 1.048.824 | 1.349.700 | 1,63% | 101 |
| 9 | 1.177.706 | 1.526.670 | 1,83% | 101 |
| 10 | 1.191.929 | 1.541.466 | 1,85% | 101 |
| 11 | 1.266.364 | 1.596.529 | 1,97% | 101 |
| 12 | 1.282.556 | 1.642.968 | 2,00% | 101 |
| 13 | 1.337.522 | 1.710.916 | 2,08% | 101 |
| 14 | 1.365.458 | 1.775.955 | 2,12% | 101 |
| 15 | 1.463.513 | 1.894.549 | 2,28% | 101 |
| 16 | 1.456.942 | 1.882.474 | 2,26% | 101 |
| 17 | 1.526.559 | 1.943.974 | 2,37% | 101 |
| 18 | 1.557.152 | 1.998.717 | 2,42% | 101 |
| 19 | 1.576.416 | 2.064.982 | 2,44% | 101 |
| 20 | 1.605.233 | 2.060.422 | 2,48% | 101 |
| 21 | 1.713.361 | 2.179.554 | 2,65% | 101 |
| 22 | 1.723.731 | 2.178.783 | 2,67% | 101 |
| 23 | 1.755.559 | 2.210.042 | 2,72% | 101 |
| 24 | 1.769.166 | 2.269.928 | 2,74% | 101 |
| 25 | 1.795.993 | 2.331.297 | 2,78% | 101 |
| 26 | 1.780.609 | 2.293.307 | 2,76% | 101 |
| 27 | 1.849.227 | 2.388.002 | 2,86% | 101 |
| 28 | 1.908.351 | 2.405.665 | 2,95% | 101 |
| 29 | 1.954.053 | 2.417.438 | 3,02% | 101 |
| 30 | 1.975.596 | 2.479.351 | 3,06% | 101 |
| 31 | 2.047.956 | 2.555.748 | 3,17% | 101 |
| 32 | 2.004.121 | 2.550.897 | 3,10% | 101 |
| 33 | 2.023.214 | 2.601.203 | 3,13% | 101 |
| 34 | 2.032.126 | 2.644.012 | 3,14% | 101 |
| 35 | 2.092.072 | 2.657.920 | 3,24% | 101 |
| 36 | 2.128.520 | 2.722.753 | 3,30% | 101 |
| 37 | 2.181.085 | 2.814.851 | 3,37% | 101 |
| 38 | 2.130.941 | 2.792.925 | 3,29% | 101 |
| 39 | 2.108.277 | 2.817.419 | 3,25% | 101 |
| 40 | 2.134.962 | 2.853.173 | 3,29% | 101 |
| 41 | 2.180.614 | 2.872.399 | 3,36% | 101 |
| 42 | 2.252.840 | 2.964.337 | 3,48% | 101 |
| 43 | 2.268.851 | 3.039.264 | 3,50% | 101 |
| 44 | 2.230.769 | 3.037.419 | 3,43% | 101 |
| 45 | 2.278.535 | 3.095.407 | 3,51% | 101 |
| 46 | 2.284.779 | 3.117.236 | 3,52% | 101 |
| 47 | 2.328.937 | 3.151.068 | 3,58% | 101 |
| 48 | 2.413.452 | 3.220.178 | 3,71% | 101 |
| 49 | 2.444.205 | 3.267.346 | 3,76% | 101 |
| 50 | 2.440.967 | 3.296.364 | 3,75% | 101 |
| 51 | 2.527.333 | 3.359.945 | 3,88% | 101 |
| 52 | 2.561.835 | 3.393.656 | 3,94% | 101 |
| 53 | 2.621.164 | 3.434.446 | 4,03% | 101 |
| 54 | 2.732.000 | 3.503.532 | 4,20% | 101 |
| 55 | 2.786.772 | 3.531.975 | 4,28% | 101 |
| 56 | 2.785.114 | 3.558.022 | 4,28% | 101 |
| 57 | 2.861.248 | 3.613.260 | 4,39% | 101 |
| 58 | 2.874.365 | 3.647.199 | 4,41% | 101 |
| 59 | 2.890.548 | 3.675.714 | 4,43% | 101 |
| 60 | 2.945.645 | 3.748.462 | 4,52% | 101 |
| 61 | 3.002.879 | 3.765.604 | 4,61% | 101 |
| 62 | 3.009.389 | 3.782.938 | 4,61% | 101 |
| 63 | 3.039.480 | 3.823.614 | 4,66% | 101 |
| 64 | 3.096.039 | 3.856.957 | 4,75% | 101 |
| 65 | 3.120.834 | 3.872.650 | 4,79% | 101 |
| 66 | 3.153.720 | 3.952.002 | 4,84% | 101 |
| 67 | 3.211.175 | 3.957.212 | 4,93% | 101 |
| 68 | 3.207.877 | 3.960.851 | 4,92% | 101 |
| 69 | 3.249.163 | 3.980.451 | 4,98% | 101 |
| 70 | 3.322.928 | 4.036.844 | 5,10% | 101 |
| 71 | 3.344.002 | 4.055.511 | 5,13% | 101 |
| 72 | 3.379.663 | 4.135.850 | 5,18% | 101 |
| 73 | 3.399.540 | 4.133.078 | 5,21% | 101 |
| 74 | 3.406.296 | 4.165.373 | 5,21% | 101 |
| 75 | 3.429.692 | 4.191.823 | 5,25% | 101 |
| 76 | 3.518.030 | 4.281.743 | 5,39% | 101 |
| 77 | 3.544.429 | 4.305.560 | 5,43% | 101 |
| 78 | 3.629.003 | 4.422.931 | 5,55% | 101 |
| 79 | 3.631.606 | 4.418.058 | 5,56% | 101 |
| 80 | 3.666.056 | 4.449.672 | 5,61% | 101 |
| 81 | 3.701.860 | 4.480.756 | 5,66% | 101 |
| 82 | 3.778.296 | 4.548.555 | 5,79% | 101 |
| 83 | 3.786.773 | 4.576.958 | 5,80% | 101 |
| 84 | 3.854.557 | 4.677.725 | 5,90% | 101 |
| 85 | 3.865.370 | 4.683.656 | 5,91% | 101 |
| 86 | 3.867.922 | 4.713.706 | 5,91% | 101 |
| 87 | 3.892.227 | 4.720.591 | 5,95% | 101 |
| 88 | 3.968.636 | 4.755.038 | 6,08% | 101 |
| 89 | 4.024.339 | 4.779.993 | 6,16% | 101 |
| 90 | 4.085.925 | 4.857.265 | 6,25% | 101 |
| Ngày | Dự báo | So với hiện tại | Khoảng 80% | Khoảng 95% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2026 | 68.363.195 | +0,01% | 67.751.012 – 68.975.378 | 67.426.942 – 69.299.448 |
| 11/10/2026 | 68.373.390 | +0,03% | 67.483.633 – 69.263.147 | 67.012.624 – 69.734.155 |
| 12/10/2026 | 68.383.585 | +0,04% | 67.323.865 – 69.443.304 | 66.762.883 – 70.004.286 |
| 13/10/2026 | 68.393.780 | +0,06% | 67.137.811 – 69.649.749 | 66.472.941 – 70.314.618 |
| 14/10/2026 | 68.403.975 | +0,07% | 67.068.612 – 69.739.337 | 66.361.714 – 70.446.235 |
| 15/10/2026 | 68.414.170 | +0,09% | 66.948.799 – 69.879.540 | 66.173.078 – 70.655.261 |
| 16/10/2026 | 68.424.364 | +0,10% | 66.835.639 – 70.013.090 | 65.994.618 – 70.854.111 |
| 17/10/2026 | 68.434.559 | +0,12% | 66.704.849 – 70.164.270 | 65.789.196 – 71.079.923 |
| 18/10/2026 | 68.444.754 | +0,13% | 66.488.248 – 70.401.261 | 65.452.536 – 71.436.973 |
| 19/10/2026 | 68.454.949 | +0,15% | 66.479.481 – 70.430.418 | 65.433.731 – 71.476.167 |
| 20/10/2026 | 68.465.144 | +0,16% | 66.419.110 – 70.511.179 | 65.336.004 – 71.594.284 |
| 21/10/2026 | 68.475.339 | +0,18% | 66.369.791 – 70.580.887 | 65.255.181 – 71.695.497 |
| 22/10/2026 | 68.485.534 | +0,19% | 66.292.906 – 70.678.162 | 65.132.200 – 71.838.869 |
| 23/10/2026 | 68.495.729 | +0,21% | 66.219.751 – 70.771.707 | 65.014.920 – 71.976.538 |
| 24/10/2026 | 68.505.924 | +0,22% | 66.077.962 – 70.933.886 | 64.792.676 – 72.219.172 |
| 25/10/2026 | 68.516.119 | +0,24% | 66.103.631 – 70.928.606 | 64.826.538 – 72.205.700 |
| 26/10/2026 | 68.526.314 | +0,25% | 66.035.011 – 71.017.617 | 64.716.195 – 72.336.433 |
| 27/10/2026 | 68.536.509 | +0,27% | 65.975.050 – 71.097.967 | 64.619.096 – 72.453.921 |
| 28/10/2026 | 68.546.704 | +0,28% | 65.900.323 – 71.193.084 | 64.499.414 – 72.593.993 |
| 29/10/2026 | 68.556.899 | +0,30% | 65.916.361 – 71.197.436 | 64.518.545 – 72.595.252 |
| 30/10/2026 | 68.567.093 | +0,31% | 65.773.883 – 71.360.304 | 64.295.247 – 72.838.940 |
| 31/10/2026 | 68.577.288 | +0,33% | 65.785.065 – 71.369.511 | 64.306.952 – 72.847.625 |
| 01/11/2026 | 68.587.483 | +0,34% | 65.755.200 – 71.419.766 | 64.255.880 – 72.919.086 |
| 02/11/2026 | 68.597.678 | +0,36% | 65.688.649 – 71.506.708 | 64.148.701 – 73.046.655 |
| 03/11/2026 | 68.607.873 | +0,37% | 65.620.196 – 71.595.551 | 64.038.615 – 73.177.132 |
| 04/11/2026 | 68.618.068 | +0,39% | 65.679.077 – 71.557.059 | 64.123.270 – 73.112.867 |
| 05/11/2026 | 68.628.263 | +0,40% | 65.567.916 – 71.688.610 | 63.947.866 – 73.308.660 |
| 06/11/2026 | 68.638.458 | +0,42% | 65.555.475 – 71.721.441 | 63.923.442 – 73.353.474 |
| 07/11/2026 | 68.648.653 | +0,43% | 65.550.581 – 71.746.724 | 63.910.562 – 73.386.744 |
| 08/11/2026 | 68.658.848 | +0,45% | 65.481.432 – 71.836.263 | 63.799.410 – 73.518.286 |
| 09/11/2026 | 68.669.043 | +0,46% | 65.393.720 – 71.944.365 | 63.659.869 – 73.678.217 |
| 10/11/2026 | 68.679.238 | +0,48% | 65.410.132 – 71.948.343 | 63.679.572 – 73.678.903 |
| 11/11/2026 | 68.689.433 | +0,49% | 65.355.857 – 72.023.008 | 63.591.168 – 73.787.697 |
| 12/11/2026 | 68.699.628 | +0,51% | 65.311.190 – 72.088.065 | 63.517.459 – 73.881.796 |
| 13/11/2026 | 68.709.822 | +0,52% | 65.303.561 – 72.116.084 | 63.500.396 – 73.919.249 |
| 14/11/2026 | 68.720.017 | +0,54% | 65.230.669 – 72.209.366 | 63.383.519 – 74.056.515 |
| 15/11/2026 | 68.730.212 | +0,55% | 65.122.836 – 72.337.588 | 63.213.206 – 74.247.218 |
| 16/11/2026 | 68.740.407 | +0,57% | 65.161.130 – 72.319.685 | 63.266.375 – 74.214.440 |
| 17/11/2026 | 68.750.602 | +0,58% | 65.139.934 – 72.361.270 | 63.228.562 – 74.272.643 |
| 18/11/2026 | 68.760.797 | +0,60% | 65.104.309 – 72.417.285 | 63.168.681 – 74.352.913 |
| 19/11/2026 | 68.770.992 | +0,61% | 65.089.865 – 72.452.119 | 63.141.194 – 74.400.790 |
| 20/11/2026 | 68.781.187 | +0,63% | 64.982.236 – 72.580.137 | 62.971.193 – 74.591.180 |
| 21/11/2026 | 68.791.382 | +0,64% | 64.896.408 – 72.686.356 | 62.834.534 – 74.748.230 |
| 22/11/2026 | 68.801.577 | +0,66% | 64.908.967 – 72.694.186 | 62.848.344 – 74.754.809 |
| 23/11/2026 | 68.811.772 | +0,67% | 64.844.848 – 72.778.695 | 62.744.885 – 74.878.658 |
| 24/11/2026 | 68.821.967 | +0,69% | 64.827.068 – 72.816.865 | 62.712.297 – 74.931.637 |
| 25/11/2026 | 68.832.162 | +0,70% | 64.793.905 – 72.870.418 | 62.656.182 – 75.008.141 |
| 26/11/2026 | 68.842.356 | +0,72% | 64.715.532 – 72.969.181 | 62.530.924 – 75.153.789 |
| 27/11/2026 | 68.852.551 | +0,73% | 64.665.279 – 73.039.824 | 62.448.671 – 75.256.432 |
| 28/11/2026 | 68.862.746 | +0,75% | 64.638.286 – 73.087.207 | 62.401.992 – 75.323.501 |
| 29/11/2026 | 68.872.941 | +0,76% | 64.566.998 – 73.178.884 | 62.287.569 – 75.458.313 |
| 30/11/2026 | 68.883.136 | +0,78% | 64.533.991 – 73.232.281 | 62.231.693 – 75.534.579 |
| 01/12/2026 | 68.893.331 | +0,79% | 64.491.911 – 73.294.751 | 62.161.941 – 75.624.722 |
| 02/12/2026 | 68.903.526 | +0,81% | 64.413.569 – 73.393.483 | 62.036.730 – 75.770.322 |
| 03/12/2026 | 68.913.721 | +0,82% | 64.387.313 – 73.440.129 | 61.991.177 – 75.836.265 |
| 04/12/2026 | 68.923.916 | +0,84% | 64.364.127 – 73.483.705 | 61.950.321 – 75.897.511 |
| 05/12/2026 | 68.934.111 | +0,85% | 64.303.532 – 73.564.690 | 61.852.251 – 76.015.970 |
| 06/12/2026 | 68.944.306 | +0,87% | 64.270.233 – 73.618.379 | 61.795.928 – 76.092.684 |
| 07/12/2026 | 68.954.501 | +0,88% | 64.243.884 – 73.665.117 | 61.750.234 – 76.158.767 |
| 08/12/2026 | 68.964.696 | +0,89% | 64.160.848 – 73.768.543 | 61.617.845 – 76.311.546 |
| 09/12/2026 | 68.974.891 | +0,91% | 64.149.074 – 73.800.707 | 61.594.442 – 76.355.339 |
| 10/12/2026 | 68.985.085 | +0,92% | 64.137.056 – 73.833.115 | 61.570.664 – 76.399.507 |
| 11/12/2026 | 68.995.280 | +0,94% | 64.095.121 – 73.895.439 | 61.501.134 – 76.489.427 |
| 12/12/2026 | 69.005.475 | +0,95% | 64.062.586 – 73.948.365 | 61.445.978 – 76.564.972 |
| 13/12/2026 | 69.015.670 | +0,97% | 64.052.669 – 73.978.671 | 61.425.415 – 76.605.925 |
| 14/12/2026 | 69.025.865 | +0,98% | 63.961.171 – 74.090.559 | 61.280.084 – 76.771.646 |
| 15/12/2026 | 69.036.060 | +1,00% | 63.964.689 – 74.107.431 | 61.280.068 – 76.792.053 |
| 16/12/2026 | 69.046.255 | +1,01% | 63.970.221 – 74.122.289 | 61.283.130 – 76.809.380 |
| 17/12/2026 | 69.056.450 | +1,03% | 63.955.297 – 74.157.603 | 61.254.910 – 76.857.990 |
| 18/12/2026 | 69.066.645 | +1,04% | 63.893.220 – 74.240.069 | 61.154.575 – 76.978.715 |
| 19/12/2026 | 69.076.840 | +1,06% | 63.879.494 – 74.274.186 | 61.128.185 – 77.025.495 |
| 20/12/2026 | 69.087.035 | +1,07% | 63.786.729 – 74.387.340 | 60.980.917 – 77.193.152 |
| 21/12/2026 | 69.097.230 | +1,09% | 63.800.477 – 74.393.983 | 60.996.545 – 77.197.914 |
| 22/12/2026 | 69.107.425 | +1,10% | 63.769.285 – 74.445.564 | 60.943.444 – 77.271.405 |
| 23/12/2026 | 69.117.619 | +1,12% | 63.745.582 – 74.489.657 | 60.901.798 – 77.333.441 |
| 24/12/2026 | 69.127.814 | +1,13% | 63.640.540 – 74.615.089 | 60.735.752 – 77.519.877 |
| 25/12/2026 | 69.138.009 | +1,15% | 63.620.212 – 74.655.807 | 60.699.266 – 77.576.752 |
| 26/12/2026 | 69.148.204 | +1,16% | 63.479.990 – 74.816.419 | 60.479.419 – 77.816.990 |
| 27/12/2026 | 69.158.399 | +1,18% | 63.496.431 – 74.820.368 | 60.499.165 – 77.817.633 |
| 28/12/2026 | 69.168.594 | +1,19% | 63.466.110 – 74.871.078 | 60.447.397 – 77.889.791 |
| 29/12/2026 | 69.178.789 | +1,21% | 63.436.469 – 74.921.109 | 60.396.669 – 77.960.909 |
| 30/12/2026 | 69.188.984 | +1,22% | 63.359.776 – 75.018.192 | 60.273.980 – 78.103.988 |
| 31/12/2026 | 69.199.179 | +1,24% | 63.333.571 – 75.064.787 | 60.228.506 – 78.169.852 |
| 01/01/2027 | 69.209.374 | +1,25% | 63.214.628 – 75.204.120 | 60.041.201 – 78.377.546 |
| 02/01/2027 | 69.219.569 | +1,27% | 63.217.222 – 75.221.916 | 60.039.771 – 78.399.366 |
| 03/01/2027 | 69.229.764 | +1,28% | 63.188.907 – 75.270.621 | 59.991.070 – 78.468.457 |
| 04/01/2027 | 69.239.959 | +1,30% | 63.190.278 – 75.289.640 | 59.987.770 – 78.492.147 |
| 05/01/2027 | 69.250.154 | +1,31% | 63.156.327 – 75.343.980 | 59.930.450 – 78.569.857 |
| 06/01/2027 | 69.260.348 | +1,33% | 63.134.541 – 75.386.156 | 59.891.735 – 78.628.962 |
| 07/01/2027 | 69.270.543 | +1,34% | 63.045.707 – 75.495.379 | 59.750.478 – 78.790.608 |
Công khai để kết quả có thể kiểm chứng lại, thay vì phải tin vào một hộp đen.